Regarding the $FF opening prediction analysis tonight👉 Analyst @ChloeTalk1 wrote an analysis about tonight's Falcon $FF, and 无畏 translated and shared it. Falcon Finance will open at 9 PM tonight on BN, and the pre-market price on Whale market is 0.29, close to a market cap of 3B. So, is it worth getting in after the opening? From the product form, we all know that $FALCON @FalconStable is a clone of $ENA @EthenaLabs. Currently, the issuance of $USDE for $ENA has reached 14B, while the issuance of $USDF for $FALCON is only 1.8B. In terms of stablecoin issuance scale, $USDF is only 12.8% of $USDE, which shows a significant gap. The reasons for this large gap are as follows: First, $ENA, as the project that first proposed the concept of "derivative synthetic stablecoins," has always been at the forefront of market development, attracting the most attention and liquidity in the derivative synthetic stablecoin space. Second, the timing is different. $ENA entered the market at the peak of LSDfi, which provided $ENA with a large amount of LSD assets as collateral to mint a significant amount of $USDE. Third, with the recovery of the $BTC market, perp trading volume and funding fees have continued to rise, bringing high returns to the first batch of users participating in $USDE staking, allowing $ENA to reap the early benefits of the bull market. For Falcon Finance to break through and narrow the gap with $ENA, it needs to take a differentiated approach from the existing narrative. First, although $FALCON is also a derivative synthetic stablecoin, it supports a wider variety of altcoin tokens, while $ENA currently only has core trading pairs of BTC, ETH, and SOL. $FALCON has expanded to include more asset categories. This aligns with the style of @DWF_Labs behind $FALCON, which has years of experience as a market maker in altcoin asset trading. As we know, the funding fees for altcoins are generally higher than those for BTC, ETH, and SOL, which means $USDF can provide higher returns for holders. Second, when $ENA was developing, it chose LSD assets as the source of liquidity, which aligned with the main narrative of the previous cycle, maximizing the attraction of liquidity. Similarly, one of the core narratives this round is the Trump concept, so we also see $FALCON actively introducing $USD1 as collateral, which brings possibilities for $FALCON's future rapid growth. If Trump continues to govern for another three years, $USD1 will have a high growth period in the next three years, which will bring high liquidity to $FALCON. Third, the circular lending model. The expansion of $ENA's $USDE relies on the circular lending combination of @aaveaave + @pendle_fi. Through Aave + Pendle, $ENA can link the funding fee spread of the perp market with the lending spread on-chain, stimulating a wave of DeFi users to use circular lending with $USDE for arbitrage, thus providing significant support for the rapid expansion of $USDE. Currently, $FALCON's circular lending path has not been fully established, and the funding fees for altcoins will be even more exaggerated than those for BTC and ETH, which means that arbitrage has a higher interest spread, supporting higher leverage, further stimulating the growth of $USDF. Fourth, through the vampire attack of $ASTER @asterxyz on $HYPE @HyperliquidX, market users are reminded once again of the immense power of liquidity mining and trading mining. At this moment, with $FALCON's TGE behind and $ASTER's vampire attack on $HYPE in front, if $FALCON wants to quickly catch up with $ENA, a rapid surge after going live on BN is very much in the interest of the project team. Through vampire attacks + liquidity mining, they can quickly compete for the market.
Tomorrow 21:00 HK time, $FALCON goes live. Pre-market price: ~$0.29 → ~3B FDV. Is it worth aping in? From product design, Falcon Finance is basically a fork of @EthenaLabs @gdog97_ . $USDE supply = 14B vs $USDF only 1.8B (12.8% of $USDE). Why such a big gap? First, $ENA was the first to propose “perp synthetic stablecoins,” capturing most liquidity + attention. Second, $ENA launched at peak LSDfi hype, attracting huge LSD collateral to mint $USDE. Third, as BTC recovered, perp volume + funding fees surged, rewarding early $USDE stakers—$ENA caught the earliest bull wave. For $FALCON to close the gap, it must differentiate: 1) $FALCON supports more altcoin collateral vs. $ENA’s BTC/ETH/SOL. Backer @DWF_Labs specializes in alts, and alt perps usually pay higher funding fees, boosting $USDF yields. Recently, I’ve been trading a lot of new coin perps, and I keep thinking about what kind of data is most important for retail users when it comes to altcoin perp products. Just like the “insider trading” data on gmgn, this type of information is extremely important for many emerging perp DEXs(next thread). 2) $ENA grew via LSD narrative; this cycle’s theme includes Trump, and $FALCON is integrating $USD1. With Trump possibly in office 3 more years, $USD1 liquidity inflows could scale $FALCON massively. 3) $ENA scaled $USDE via Aave+Pendle recursive loops, connecting perp funding spreads to on-chain lending spreads. $FALCON hasn’t built this yet, but alt funding spreads are wilder, offering juicier arb + leverage potential to drive $USDF growth. 4) $ASTER @asterxyz’s vampire attack on $HYPE @HyperliquidX reminded markets of liquidity + trading mining’s power. With $FALCON TGE now and $ASTER’s attack fresh, a fast post-BN pump via vampire + liquidity mining would align perfectly with project incentives. #ENA #FF #StableCoin #DWF #USDE
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