Market Overview by @Tunaswiminsea Equities Market: Tech Pressure Builds Ahead of NVDA Earnings • Mega-Cap Volatility: MAG7 giants like Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) saw double-digit pullbacks driven by AI profitability scrutiny as management doubles down on data center spending. According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, American tech giants "will borrow roughly $1.2 trillion from 2025 to 2028." • High Bar for NVDA to Beat: NVDA's earnings release this week is critical; insufficient performance could worsen the market drawdown. Current consensus for quarterly revenue sits at $54.6 billion, requiring over 50% YoY growth from the chip manufacturer. • Data Blackout Ends: After the longest shutdown in history, the BLS is set to release data once again this Thursday. Current consensus for September NFP is +50,000 and 4.3% for the Unemployment Rate.

Bitcoin: Heading towards Make or Break Level • BTC Approaches Inflection Point: Bitcoin's drawdown reached -25% over the weekend, putting it only 3% away from the maximum drawdown seen so far in this cycle. Moreover, the downtrend has also erased all gains made this year and broken market structure. The current weekly chart closely resembles the Q3 '21 second drive to the All-Time High. However, that period was later followed by the Fed tightening for the first time in years, which is contrary to our current outlook on the market. • Saylor Shifts to Preferred Shares: A recent 8-K filing discloses that MicroStrategy raised $131 million from $STRC and $703 million from $STRE offerings to accumulate more Bitcoin at approximately $102,000. We believe the highlight is the raise from $STRC. It was achieved on $800 million of weekly volume, with MicroStrategy's sale representing about 16%. For reference, MSTR traded at more than $20 billion average weekly volume in October and November 2024. Depending on BTC price momentum and investor confidence in MicroStrategy's ability to service preferred shares, we believe there is large room for growth for $STRC and other similar products offered by MicroStrategy. • ETF Outflow Continues: Cumulative inflow lowered to $58.8 billion, a level last seen in September 2025. Without a significant bounce in BTC prices, ETF flow reflexivity is likely to fuel further outflow as tech stock outperformance grows.

Altcoins: Same Market, Different Story • Isolated Strength amid General Weakness: ZEC and UNI stays ahead of the altcoin market by a wide margin as liquidity concentrates on winners. • Speculative Premium Further Deteriorates: Revenue-rich protocols like HYPE and LDO are faring better in broader market downtrend while past market darlings fade into the background. However, one case stands out. According to its dashboard, PUMP has been buying back over $1 million daily from platform revenue, but the weakness over other protocols is glaringly obvious. We believe the discount is partly because of the cyclical nature of its business, and partly the counter-intuitive level of buyback volume with Solana on-chain trading volume dwindling.